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Mary Johnson and The Senior Citizens League project a mid-3% cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security in 2027

The Social Security Administration is scheduled to announce the official 2027 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) on Oct. 14. Current projections from independent analyst Mary Johnson and advocacy group The Senior Citizens League suggest a benefit increase in the mid-3% range, which would exceed the 2.8% boost received in 2026. These estimates are influenced by sustained inflation, particularly rising energy costs from Middle East conflicts and the impact of the Iran war. Additionally, the administration announced a new wave of global tariffs and trade policies endorsed by Trump that are contributing to inflationary pressure. While the final figure is not yet determined, a 3.4% to 3.6% increase would provide a significant boost to retirees. For example, a 3.5% average increase would raise the average monthly retired-worker benefit to approximately $2,159. Analysts note that while the COLA helps offset rising costs, the Social Security trust fund faces potential insolvency by 2032, necessitating future legislative action to ensure long-term sustainability.

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