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Global Demand for Air Conditioning is Expected to Surge as Temperatures Rise

The global demand for air conditioning is expected to accelerate as the world continues to warm. While 90 percent of households in the United States and Japan enjoy artificial cooling, only 8 percent of the 2.8 billion people living in the hottest parts of the world currently possess air conditioning. The International Energy Agency estimates that the global stock of air conditioners in buildings will reach 5.6 billion by 2050, up from 2.5 billion today. In countries like India and Indonesia, demand for power just for cooling could reach as high as 75 percent of current total annual electricity demand by 2050. This poses a challenge for the climate, as cooling energy accounted for roughly 2.5 billion tons of CO2 equivalent emissions in 2022. To mitigate these impacts, researchers are developing low-carbon solutions, such as evaporative cooling configurations and specialized surfaces that reflect solar radiation. Data from the United Kingdom shows that a lack of air conditioning contributed to a significant mortality rate during a recent heatwave, where over 2,700 people were allegedly killed by heat. In contrast, the United States has a much higher adoption rate, with nearly 90 percent of households having air conditioning as of 2020.

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