Ryan Detrick argues that current market conditions suggest a stronger September than historical averages indicate.
Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, suggests that investors should not rely solely on the historical reputation of September as a weak month for the S&P 500. While September has been the worst month on average since 1950, Detrick notes that historically poor performances usually occurred when the market entered the month with weak momentum. In contrast, the current market is entering September with strong momentum, including a robust August performance and broad participation across 70% of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200-day moving average. Furthermore, Matt Powers noted that earnings growth is currently at its strongest level since 2021, with 10 of 11 sectors showing double-digit growth. While the bond market presents a risk with elevated 10-year Treasury yields, Detrick argues that the current breadth and solid fundamentals provide a more durable signal than simple seasonality. Investors are advised to look at underlying conditions rather than just the calendar page.