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James Talarico holds a narrow lead over Ken Paxton in the competitive Texas U.S. Senate race.
State Representative James Talarico currently holds a three-point lead over Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in the U.S. Senate race, according to a new Texas Politics Project poll. The poll shows Talarico with 42% of the support and Paxton with 39%. While Democrats show higher levels of extreme enthusiasm for the election, Republicans have seen a waning of enthusiasm compared to the 2022 midterms. Democrats are more committed to their respective candidates, with 91% of Democrats supporting Talarico and 79% of supporting Paxton. Independent voters who have made a1 decision are currently favoring Talarico by a significant margin. The poll was conducted among 1,200 registered voters in Texas between August 5 and August 13, 2026.