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Alessio Terzi and Francesco Nicoli report that space launch costs are projected to drop by 93% by 2040.

Research led by Alessio Terzi and Francesco Nicoli indicates that the cost of reaching orbit is on track for a dramatic decline, potentially falling by 93% by 2040. The study, published in PNAS Nexus, highlights that the cost to send one kilogram of payload into low Earth orbit is expected to drop from $3,868 in 2025 to just $273 by 2040. This rapid decline is driven by increased demand and the success of reusable launch vehicles, particularly those from SpaceX. The researchers note that the cost of space launch technology is falling faster than during the steamship revolution, suggesting a new economic boom in space. Lower costs are expected to be a major catalyst for new industries, such as asteroid mining and orbital solar power production. However, the study warns that if one company, such as SpaceX, maintains too much dominance, or if nations rely solely on expensive domestic systems, competition could eventually slow the rate of cost reductions.

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