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Rosin argues that Vladimir Putin faces difficult choices as Russia faces growing internal and economic pressures during the war.

Vladimir Putin faces increasingly difficult options as the Russian war effort faces mounting military, economic, and internal pressures. According to analyst Rosin, continuing the military campaign leads to further losses and economic strain, while ending it prematurely could damage Putin's reputation as a leader. Internal voices within the Kremlin are beginning to call for a reconsideration of the current strategy. While a street revolution is not imminent, those with access to money and information are discussing ways to end the conflict rather than seeking total victory. The 2023 Prigozhin rebellion highlighted the potential for systemic weaknesses. Economic factors are also mounting, with battlefield losses exceeding recruitment numbers and Ukrainian strikes on oil infrastructure straining state finances. Estonian intelligence estimates a budget deficit of 10 trillion roubles this year. While Russia is not expected to make an immediate conventional attack on the voter, Putin still considers NATO's Article 5 credible. Deterrence remains effective as long as the West maintains its strength and engagement.

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