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Vladimir Putin Prepares to Intensify Conventional Warfare in Ukraine as Peace Talks Reach a Dead End

Russian President Vladimir Putin is preparing to intensify ballistic missile attacks on Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities as the Kremlin concludes that peace negotiations have reached a dead end. While some hawkish factions within the Russian government have discussed the possibility of using tactical nuclear weapons, experts such as Alexander Gabuev suggest the risk remains extremely low as long as Putin can escalate using conventional weapons. Ukraine has significantly expanded its long-range drone campaign, targeting major e-commerce warehouses and oil refineries deep within Russian territory. The Kremlin views these strikes as direct attacks by NATO member states, given the weapons and intelligence provided to Kyiv. In response to the administration's efforts to manage the conflict, CIA Director John Ratcliffe visited Moscow to warn Russia against testing the resolve of NATO with a limited military operation. Despite the threat of nuclear escalation, history suggests that nuclear-armed powers rarely use mass destruction to achieve war aims in limited interventions. Analysts argue that unless the Ukrainian army advances deeply into Russia's legitimate state territory, Moscow is unlikely to be forced into a nuclear adventure.

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