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The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised the official cash rate to 2.75% to address oil-driven inflation pressures.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) increased the official cash rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 2.75% on September 2. This second consecutive hike follows a 25-basis-point increase in July, as the bank seeks to manage inflation pressures driven by recent oil shocks.

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Recent data shows that annual CPI inflation rose from 3.1% in the March quarter to 4.1% due to surges in fuel and electricity costs. However, underlying pressures appear more contained, with inflation excluding food, household energy, and vehicle fuels sitting at 2.5%. Economists from Westpac, ANZ, and Kiwibank have provided varying perspectives on the future of the OCR. Kelly Eckhold of Westpac noted that the economy's performance has largely aligned with previous forecasts. Sharon Zollner of ANZ suggested that the RBNZ should continue moving the OCR toward a neutral level of 3% in an orderly fashion. Conversely, Jarrod Kerr of Kiwibank expressed a desire for the bank to slow down rate increases to prioritize economic growth. Kelly Gupwell of Boffa Miskell also suggested waiting for stronger evidence that inflation pressures are becoming embedded before supporting further increases.

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