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Vladimir Putin Weighs New Russian Mobilization Amid Mounting Battlefield Casualties and Economic Strain

Russian President Vladimir Putin is considering a new wave of mobilization to address significant manpower shortages as the war in Ukraine continues to be costly. The Russian Federation has suffered 1.4 million battlefield casualties, with a monthly rate of approximately 30,000. Despite these losses, the Institute for the Study of War found that Russia has failed to make operationally significant gains in recent offensives. To avoid the political risks of a mass draft, the administration is currently relying on high-paid voluntary contracts and coercive recruitment tactics. Local authorities are pressuring men in various positions, including those with debts or criminal cases, to sign contracts. However, experts warn that the contract-based model is beginning to falter, as the number of new recruits is barely sufficient to replace daily losses. While a new mobilization of 300,000 to 500,000 troops is expected by some, the administration has officially dismissed reports of an imminent draft. To delay the necessity of a domestic call-up, Russia has deployed North Korean troops to bolster its forces.

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