Alexander Hurst argues that an EU export ban on ASML machines could provide a necessary pause for the global AI industry.

Because AI development follows a logic similar to nuclear weaponry, individual actors are incentivized to run a race to avoid being at the mercy of a winner. To induce a slowdown, a single actor must control a choke-point. The European Union holds this leverage through the Dutch tech company ASML, which produces extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines. These machines are essential for the most advanced chip-making in the world, which in turn are required for datacentres and AI progression. The administration announced export controls on ASML's most advanced machines to China to slow down its chip-fabrication abilities. However, a straight export ban by the EU would force the global AI industry to tread water, giving regulators and societies time to catch up with the technology. While the US might retaliate by blocking ASML's access to US-based suppliers, the EU has the incentive to play its card to ensure it does not fall behind in AI models and processing power.