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Caleb Henry warns of an impending launch crisis as SpaceX begins to prioritize the Starship rocket over the Falcon 9

The commercial space industry is facing a growing crunch in launch availability as demand for satellite orbits outpaces the supply of available rockets. Caleb Henry, director of research at Quilty Space, notes that while the launch industry has seen a three-fold increase in orbital rockets over the last decade, companies are now in a state of panic regarding future capacity. This crisis is primarily driven by SpaceX's shift toward the Starship rocket, which the company intends to wind down Falcon 9 operations as quickly as possible. While Falcon 9 has been the primary workhorse for Western launch needs since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, SpaceX views commercial launch as a secondary revenue stream compared to its own Starlink satellites. Industry experts suggest that while new vehicles like the Vulcan and New Glenn are struggling to reach high cadences, the US government may need to make mutually agreeable agreements with SpaceX to ensure continued access to space. Experts predict that the launch crisis will remain acute until the 2030s, as new medium-lift vehicles take time to scale operations.

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