Axelle Perriollat and Gareth Funning develop method to pinpoint locations of major earthquakes
Geophysicists Axelle Perriollat and Gareth Funning at the University of California, Riverside, have developed a method to identify specific sections of fault lines where stress has accumulated to the breaking point. Unlike previous research that focused on estimating probability over long timescales, this method identifies where a major earthquake is most likely to occur.
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The approach uses GPS measurements of ground movement to track strain along fault lines, particularly in subduction zones where tectonic plates slide beneath one another. An algorithm extracts the fault sections that are locked and accumulating energy. The method was successfully tested on the Kamchatka Peninsula in Russia, where it correctly flagged the section of the fault that produced a magnitude 8.8 earthquake in 2025. The study also revealed that the 2025 earthquake produced a smaller tsunami than the 1952 quake in the same region, indicating that the shallowest part of the fault slipped less during the more recent event. Funning and Perriollat are currently applying the method to other major subduction zones in Japan, Mexico, New Zealand, Chile, and the northwestern United States. They are also testing the method on California's Hayward Fault to identify which sections are most likely to produce future earthquakes. While the method does not predict when an earthquake will strike or the size of the resulting tsunami, it provides a narrower map of where the hazard is greatest, which can assist in long-term planning.
Sources
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New Model Predicted Kamchatka's Magnitude 8.8 Quake
srpske.rs
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California experts crack earthquake predicting — and where a big one will strike next
New York Post