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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association predicts a historic El Niño event for the 2026-27 Northern Hemisphere fall and winter.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association updated its prediction for the El Niño, which continues to strengthen and now has a greater than 90% chance of becoming a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter of 2026-27. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association revealed that during the October-December 2026 season, there is a 69% chance of a historic event that would exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950.

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Nat Johnson, a meteorologist with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association, described the event as potentially a once in a lifetime type of strength. In a Super El Niño, the surface waters of the Pacific Ocean around the equator are more than two degrees Celsius warmer than the average. These warmer waters cause the Pacific jet stream to move south of its neutral position, resulting in dryer and warmer weather in the northern U.S. and Canada, while the U.S. Gulf Coast and Southeast experience wetter conditions and increased flooding. Some states will see snow as early as September, particularly in the high elevations of the Rocky Mountains in Montana, Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming. Snow in the Cascades of Oregon and Washington is expected to arrive later in the season due to a warmer start to fall.

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