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Goldman Sachs Research identifies limited job market impacts from artificial intelligence adoption across major developed markets.

Goldman Sachs Research economists Sarah Dong and Joseph Briggs found that while artificial intelligence (AI) is influencing hiring, the overall impact on the job market remains limited. Their analysis of 11 different surveys across countries shows that major developed markets, including the United States, France, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom, lead in AI adoption with rates between 15% and 20%.

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In industries with high exposure to AI automation, such as information and communication services, job opening growth has slowed since the second half of 2022. This trend is particularly pronounced in the United States, where employment in these sectors has fallen below its long-run trend. Other high-exposure industries, including call centers, software publishing, and management consulting, have also seen sharp declines in employment relative to the trend. However, the research indicates that economy-wide hiring headwinds are limited. A 10% occupational exposure to AI is associated with only a 0.1 percentage point drag to annual headcount growth in France, Canada, and the United States. The data suggests that while AI displacement is visible in specific industries and for junior workers, the broader job market remains resilient.

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