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Torsten Slok and Goldman Sachs Research economists Sarah Dong and Joseph Briggs report that AI is not yet replacing workers significantly.

Artificial intelligence is currently exerting downward pressure on wages in AI-exposed occupations without causing a significant negative impact on overall employment. A survey from the New York Fed conducted in August showed that 34% of service firms and 22% of manufacturers using AI are retraining staff, while only 4% and 0% report layoffs, respectively. Research indicates that the impact of the onset of generative AI tools has led companies in highly exposed industries to re-evaluate their hiring plans. In the US, employment in information and communication services has fallen below its long-run trend since 2022. Other industries with high exposure to AI, such as call centers, software publishing, and management consulting, have also seen employment fall sharply below trend across the developed world. While these impacts are visible in specific sectors, economy-wide hiring headwinds remain limited. Analysis of occupational growth suggests that junior workers may face greater headwinds to hiring due to AI adoption compared to non-entry-level groups.

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