The World Meteorological Organization projects a very strong El Niño event to intensify significantly during the second half of 2026.
The World Meteorological Organization announced that a very strong El Niño climate pattern is expected to intensify significantly during the second half of 2026. This natural climate pattern, characterized by the warming of sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, influences atmospheric circulation globally, altering rainfall, storm tracks, and temperatures. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) meteorologists indicate that the current El Niño conditions are already established and are expected to strengthen through the end of the year. Some forecasters suggest the event could rival or even exceed the strength of historic episodes, with an 81 percent chance of a very strong El Niño developing during October through December. The administration announced that the subsurface heat in the Pacific Ocean is helping fuel this intensification. While the impacts vary by region, strong El Niño events often bring wetter conditions to the Southern U.S. and California, while portions of the northern United States and Pacific Northwest may experience warmer, drier conditions. Experts caution that while the pattern is strengthening, no two El Niño events are identical, and local outcomes will vary.