Helima Croft warns that escalating conflicts in the Middle East and Europe are driving oil prices higher as tankers face multiple fronts of warfare.
Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy, reports that oil prices surged over 30% in July as geopolitical tensions disrupt global shipping routes. Brent crude broke $100 per barrel on Thursday, driven by intensified maritime attacks in the Middle East and Europe. In the Middle East, Iran is asserting control over the Strait of Hormuz, while Houthi allies in Yemen have declared a maritime embargo in the Red Sea, striking Saudi tankers. These disruptions force Saudi Arabia to utilize complex pipelines to bypass the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Meanwhile, Ukraine has attacked over 150 vessels associated with Russia's shadow fleet in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov. Croft noted that Russia has implemented an export ban on products after Ukrainian strikes took more than 50% of its refinery capacity offline. If the Middle East descends into full-scale war, Croft warned that Brent crude could surpass the 2008 peak of $148 per barrel.