National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Forecasts Below-Normal Atlantic Hurricane Activity for 2026
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced a revised outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, predicting a 75% chance of below-normal activity. This downward revision is primarily driven by the strengthening El Niño cycle in the equatorial Pacific, which creates higher vertical wind shear across the Atlantic basin. Forecasters now project a range of seven to 13 total named storms, down from a previous estimate of eight to 14. Of these, two to six are expected to become hurricanes, including up to two major hurricanes. The season has been relatively quiet so far, with only two named storms, Arthur and Bertha, having formed. While the Atlantic season is expected to be quieter than average, the strong El Niño event is expected to have significant global impacts. Climate scientists suggest that this year's El Niño could become one of the strongest on record, potentially leading to the hottest year on record in 2027. Despite the lower storm count, officials advise coastal residents to remain prepared for inland rainfall and potential storm impacts.