Robert Pape predicts a drawn-out Middle East conflict as Iran utilizes its geographic advantages to maintain dominance over the Strait of Hormuz.

Robert Pape, a Political Science Professor at the University of Chicago, suggests that the United States and Iran are currently locked in an escalation trap. This situation compels both nations to strike with increasing intensity as they struggle to achieve specific military objectives. Iran has leveraged its unique geography and advanced weapon systems, including precision drones and fast boats, to maintain a selective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. While the United States and Israel pursue a decisive victory, Iran has demonstrated significant resilience by protecting its strategic equipment in underground vaults. This defense has allowed Iran to preserve its retaliatory capacity despite heavy American strikes. Analysts suggest that the U.S. may be pursuing a path of hostility that favors Israel's interests over those of the American people. Furthermore, the ongoing conflict highlights a potential shift toward a new colonial order. As the global landscape evolves, the outcome of this confrontation will determine whether Iran emerges as a dominant global power or if the U.S.-Israel alliance establishes a new era of imperial expansion.

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