Phil Klotzbach Predicts a Quiet 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Due to Strong El Niño Influence
Phil Klotzbach, a leading seasonal hurricane forecaster at Colorado State University, predicts a well-below-average 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. Despite the formation of Tropical Storm Arthur and Tropical Storm Bertha, the season has seen a slower start than any year since 2009. Experts indicate that the strengthening El Niño in the equatorial Pacific Ocean is the primary driver for this trend, creating high levels of vertical wind shear across the Atlantic basin. This wind shear, combined with Saharan dust and cooler-than-normal water temperatures in certain areas, has inhibited tropical development. While the Atlantic remains relatively calm, the strong El Niño is expected to have global impacts, potentially making 2027 the hottest year on record. The administration announced that the National Hurricane Center has only assigned names to two tropical storms so far. Forecasters expect a total of nine named storms and four hurricanes this season, with a well-below-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.