Mikhail Kasyanov warns that Vladimir Putin faces growing pressure as Ukraine's drone strikes impact Russia's vital oil production and fuel supplies.

Mikhail Kasyanov, a former Russian finance minister and prime minister, stated that Vladimir Putin’s long-term project of providing stability and security is being challenged by the ongoing invasion of Ukraine. Kasyanov noted that the campaign has yet to achieve its primary goals and may pose an existential threat to the Kremlin. He highlighted that expanding Ukrainian long-range drone strikes on Russia's oil production and refining facilities are creating significant pressure, leading to fuel shortages and troubling macro-economic indicators. While the administration acknowledged some economic strains, the Kremlin has largely framed the fuel scarcity as a psychological challenge rather than a policy failure. Kasyanov suggested that the middle class, a key constituency for the Kremlin, is beginning to feel the impact of the war. He urged Western powers to exploit this growing pressure to force Putin back to the negotiating table. Despite the domestic challenges, Kasyanov believes the Kremlin will continue to lionize its achievements to maintain control while seeking a diplomatic settlement by the end of the year.

Sources